The Goldilocks Home Price Analysis April 2015

For its April 2015 U.S. Home Sales Report, RealtyTrac analyzed average sales price and average full market value at time of sale in 315 U.S. counties nationwide to determine which markets are the hottest seller’s markets and which are the best markets for buyers.

To illustrate this graphically we’ve created this set of three heat maps that we’re calling the Goldilocks Housing Market Analysis.

The first heat map shows markets where the average sales price for homes in April was 101 percent or more of the average estimated full market value of the homes that sold. These markets are what Goldilocks might call “too hot” because what buyers are willing to pay is outpacing what an analysis of recent home sales indicates they should be paying. This may be bad for buyers but it’s certainly good for sellers.

The second map shows markets that Goldilocks might label as “too cold” because buyers were only willing to pay on average between 77 percent and 97 percent on average of the estimated full market value of the homes they are purchasing. These markets are good for buyers, because they’re able to buy at what they would consider a bargain price, but they’re bad for sellers because they’re not able to get out of the property what they might expect based on recent sales of similar properties in the neighborhood.

The final map shows markets Goldilocks would call “just right” because of a nice balance between buyers and sellers where homes sold on average in April between 98 percent and 100 percent of their estimated full market value at time of sale.

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